The blind spot of the policies of the energy transition: the development imperative as the path to solve climate change

Abstract

Abstract The global discussion about the energy transition has been focused towards electrification given the preferences and possibilities of developed countries. However, that path is unaffordable for most of the world, therefore guaranteeing that if only one model of energy transition is preferred, the full process has a high risk of failure with catastrophic consequences at global level. It seems that developed countries are not aware of this circumstance, and do not realize the complex consequences that failure might bring for their countries and the global community, even if they individually succeed. This is because the development level of the countries is not the same, even though there is a strong political mandate to work on it through the SDG framework, and the focus of the global efforts are not centred in decarbonization. This situation also seems to fail to recognize that oil and gas industry will be a part of human development for the decades and centuries to come, provided that its decarbonization efforts succeed to adapt to a low-carbon world. It is fundamental that the global community recognizes that past cases where one-size-fits-all programmes were applied, they backfired and results were generally negative both for the countries involved and the international community. The energy transition for developing countries, including fossil fuel-rich countries, therefore requires strong, active and committed support from developed countries for the implementation of policies and programmes, design effective economic diversification paths and ensure decarbonization of the oil sector. Collaboration and consensus is essential for the reaching of climate goals, which would most likely be achieved through reaching the development goals.