Abstract
A transition to a bio-based economy would entail change in coupled social–ecological systems. These systems are characterised by complexity, giving rise to potential unintended consequences and trade-offs caused by actions aiming to facilitate a transition process. Yet, many of the analyses to date have been focusing on single and predominantly technological aspects of the bio-based economy. The main contribution of our work is to the development of an integrated understanding of potential future transition pathways, with the present paper focusing specifically on terrestrial biological resources derived from the forestry sector in Sweden. Desired change processes identified include a transition to diversified forest management, a structural change in the forestry industry to enable high-value added production, and increased political support for the bio-based economy concept. Hindrances identified include the ability to demonstrate added values for end consumers of novel biomass applications, and uncertainty linked to a perceived high level of polarisation in the forestry debate. The results outline how these different processes are interrelated, allowing for the identification of high order leverage points and interventions to facilitate a transition to a bio-based economy.
Highlights
The development of a bio-based economy may be understood as a transition from a society mainly dependent on fossil-based resources, to an economy built on the use of bio-based resources [1]
While parallel visions and understandings of the bio-based economy exist, the results provide an integrated understanding of the change processes perceived as key by the interviewed experts
The results, in the form of Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs), are presented under the following themes: (1) The dynamics directly linked to primary production and processing in the forestry sector, and (2) The political dimension of the bio-based economy concept
Summary
The development of a bio-based economy may be understood as a transition from a society mainly dependent on fossil-based resources, to an economy built on the use of bio-based resources [1]. Change in social–ecological systems involves complex, simultaneous processes, characterized by multiple and interacting feedbacks, non-linear dynamics, and cause and effect relationships distant in time and space [4]. This complexity gives rise to elements of uncertainty, and to potential trade-offs and unintended consequences following interventions to facilitate change. This paper seeks to contribute to the development of an integrated structural understanding of the social and ecological processes governing a transition to a bio-based economy. The present paper outlines transition pathways in the forestry sector, highlighting how dynamics directly related to primary production and processing are coupled with a political dimension of the bio-based economy concept. The paper ends with a concluding discussion and areas for future research
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