Abstract
One explanation for current uncertainty about the trajectory of the long-term trend in pantropical forest area is that monitoring is difficult when rates of deforestation and natural reforestation are both substantial. This is supported by an analysis of aggregation problems at national scale in eight countries with widespread reforestation in one or more regions: Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Madagascar, Mexico, Nepal and Vietnam. UN Food and Agriculture Organization statistics show that natural forest area has declined since 1990 in five countries and risen in the other three (Costa Rica, India and Vietnam). Yet the context in which estimates are made seems crucial, for while the actual national survey measurements on which the statistics were based provide evidence for a net reforestation trend in India and Vietnam and a net deforestation trend in Nepal, the trajectories of the other five countries are less certain. This suggests that the turning point of the ‘forest transition’ model should be replaced by a ‘turning zone’ in which the trajectory may be uncertain.
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