Abstract
The paper draws attention to the asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases of COVID-19, which, according to some reports, may constitute a large fraction of the infected individuals. These cases are often unreported and are not captured in the total number of confirmed cases communicated daily. On the one hand, this group may play a significant role in the spread of the infection, as asymptomatic cases are seldom detectedВ and quarantined. On the other hand, it may play a significant role in disease extinction by contributing to the development of sufficient herd immunity.
Highlights
In the current COVID-19 pandemic we have a rather overwhelming situation of an enormous amount of data produced worldwide everyday and no reliable way of making sense of it or making any motivated predictions
In this paper we suggest that further COVID19 epidemiological research does not just need more data, but it needs data which goes beyond the case count captured by the health system
The importance of testing for the virus cannot be doubted as it is an important tool of reducing the spread through quarantine measures, reducing βc or equivalently R0 and flattening the curve of active infective cases
Summary
In the current COVID-19 pandemic we have a rather overwhelming situation of an enormous amount of data produced worldwide everyday and no reliable way of making sense of it or making any motivated predictions. This situation is created by the fact that data are passively collected, mostly in terms of number of cases, severity, recovered and deaths, as recorded in clinics and hospitals. As this information is publicly available, it is distributed worldwide on various official and private social media platforms, possibly making little contribution to the understanding of the disease and its epidemiological characteristics, and preventing any reliable predictions of what lies ahead. Using the detailed age structure given in [8, page 10] and the percentages of severe symptomatic cases given in [3, Table 1], the average percentage of COVID-19 infectious people needing hospitalization is 4.02% This could mean, when the infection follows locally/internally determined dynamics, i.e. it is no longer fueled by imported cases, a relatively small. The counting of confirmed cases, if not interpreted appropriately, may present quite a distorted epidemiological assessment
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