“The best predictor of future behavior is…”: examining the impact of past police misconduct on the likelihood of future misconduct

Abstract

ABSTRACTPrevious studies have identified numerous correlates of police misconduct, but no study to date has examined the impact of prior misconduct on the likelihood of future misconduct. Using a population heterogeneity/state-dependence conceptual framework, this study explores the potential influence of low self-control and prior misconduct on future intentions to engage in misconduct among a multi-agency sample of 101 first-line police supervisors. Across three types of misconduct, the results demonstrate stronger support for the state-dependent effect of prior misconduct. Specific findings, policy implications, and directions for future research are discussed.