The best laid plans… gang aft agley? Assessing population needs in Scotland

Abstract

This paper contains an overview of the first Scottish community care plans in relation to the assessment of population needs. As in England and Wales, authorities have used a variety of approaches, ranging from ‘hard data’ such as demographic information and prevalence rates, to ‘soft data’, including consumer surveys and consultation with users and carers. The aggregation of individual assessments is recognized as an important, but as yet largely undeveloped, tool. Both the potential and the limitations of these various methods are discussed. Overall, the emphasis on outcomes desired by government does not appear in the plans. Given the scale and complexity of the task, however, and the poor history of joint planning, it is suggested that the focus within the plans on introducing new structures and processes is a necessary first step. Specifically in relation to assessing population needs, however, the plans have adopted a baseline which it may be difficult to shift in future years.