Abstract
AbstractWe examine the net benefits of social distancing to slow the spread of COVID-19 in USA. Social distancing saves lives but imposes large costs on society due to reduced economic activity. We use epidemiological and economic forecasting to perform a rapid benefit–cost analysis of controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Assuming that social distancing measures can substantially reduce contacts among individuals, we find net benefits of about $5.2 trillion in our benchmark case. We examine the magnitude of the critical parameters that might imply negative net benefits, including the value of statistical life and the discount rate. A key unknown factor is the speed of economic recovery with and without social distancing measures in place. A series of robustness checks also highlight the key role of the value of mortality risk reductions and discounting in the analysis and point to a need for effective economic stimulus when the outbreak has passed.
Highlights
Are the attempts to slow down the rate of COVID-19 infections by social distancing worth the cost? Because no proven treatment or vaccine exists for COVID-19, the Downloaded from https://www.cambridge.org/core
The projections of infections over time in our benchmark uncontrolled and controlled scenarios are shown in panel (a) of Figure 1, and the associated projections of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are shown in panel (b)
Our results to the recovery rate of the economy, we keep the GDP path in the controlled scenario and the immediate decline of GDP in the uncontrolled scenario the same as in the benchmark case; we only vary the subsequent GDP levels in the uncontrolled scenario. (We examine ceteris paribus changes in the initial GDP declines in our break-even analysis below.) The second and third columns in the top section of Table 2 show the key outcomes from these alternative cases: the net benefits of social distancing are $2.11 trillion and $7.78 trillion in the faster and slower recovery uncontrolled outbreak cases
Summary
IP address: 3.84.150.56, on 02 Nov 2021 at 16:15:48, subject to the Cambridge Core terms of use, available at https://www.cambridge.org/core/terms. Only effective measure available to control the virus and protect public health is to reduce the frequency of close contacts among people. Governments around the world have issued unprecedented policies and guidelines to increase social distance within and across countries. The goal is to save lives by reducing the pace and extent of COVID-19 infections (“flatten the curve”), and to avoid overtaxing nations’ health care infrastructure as symptomatic people seek medical care. In USA, the federal government has issued guidelines urging citizens to avoid gatherings of 10 or more people to help reduce community spread. The federal government has imposed travel restrictions on Canada, China, Iran, Mexico, and a wide range of European countries to reduce external exposure to the virus
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