Abstract
The Covid-19 pandemic has spread to all parts of Indonesia with different case fatality rates (CFR) between regions. The estimating parameter of the proportion of people who die compared to the number of people who test positive for coronavirus (parameter of CFR) can be determined using the Bayesian method approach. The estimation parameter of CFR is performed by using prior beta distribution, and the results have good performance with a high degree of accuracy. The choice of Bayesian model that can be built is a fixed effect model where the proportion of case deaths in each province is assumed to be mutually independent. Still, the movement of people between regions continues to occur so that a random effect model is more rational to be applied where the proportion of case deaths for each province is assumed to be the same as estimating parameter of CFR which is smaller than the current condition of Indonesia. The estimation parameter results of the CFR parameters are expected to be achieved by the Indonesian government by implementing Covid-19 controls system for each province as a mitigation diseases strategy.
Highlights
In early March 2020, Indonesia confirmed the first case of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in two patients living in Depok regency of West Java, where this disease was initially endemic in Wuhan, China, in December 2019
The death rate referred to here is the case fatality rate (CFR), which is calculated based on the proportion of people who die compared to the number of people who test positive for being infected with the virus
Evidence, it is very important for Indonesia to deal with the modeling of estimating CFR parameters as mitigation of coronavirus disease
Summary
In early March 2020, Indonesia confirmed the first case of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in two patients living in Depok regency of West Java, where this disease was initially endemic in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Until June 12, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) had reported 7,410,510 positive cases spread in 215 infected countries with the number of deaths reaching 418,294. In Indonesia, Covid-19 has spread to 34 provinces [1] with 36,406 cases and 2,048 deaths. From Home (WFH) in various agencies and companies, large-scale social restrictions to the entry and exit permit an area. Death from this disease cannot be avoided. The death rate referred to here is the case fatality rate (CFR), which is calculated based on the proportion of people who die compared to the number of people who test positive for being infected with the virus
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