Abstract

The transition to a more sustainable personal transportation sector requires the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. However, a dominant design has not yet emerged and a standards battle is being fought between battery and hydrogen fuel cell powered electric vehicles. The aim of this paper is to analyze which factors are most likely to influence the outcome of this battle, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the industry regarding investment decisions in either of these technologies. We examine the relevant factors for standard dominance and apply a multi-criteria decision-making method, best worst method, to determine the relative importance of these factors. The results indicate that the key factors include technological superiority, compatibility, and brand reputation and credibility. Our findings show that battery powered electric vehicles have a greater chance of winning the standards battle. This study contributes to theory by providing further empirical evidence that the outcome of standards battles can be explained and predicted by applying factors for standard success. We conclude that technology dominance in the automotive industry is mostly driven by technological characteristics and characteristics of the format supporter.

Highlights

  • A battle is being waged in the personal transportation sector

  • Will battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles (HFCVs) be the cars of the future? Betting on the wrong format could lead to bankruptcy

  • The transition to a more sustainable personal transportation sector requires the widespread adoption of electric vehicles powered by batteries or fuel cells

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Summary

Introduction

A battle is being waged in the personal transportation sector. Manufacturers are confronted with multi-billion Euro investment decisions. Will battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles (HFCVs) be the cars of the future? Toyota (Toyota, Japan), Honda (Tokyo, Japan), and Hyundai (Seoul, South Korea) are currently the strongest supporters of HFCVs, whereas BMW (Munich, Germany), General Motors (GM), and the alliance of Renault (Boulogne-Billancourt, France), Nissan (Yokohama, Japan), and Mitsubishi (Tokyo, Japan) support BEVs, with Tesla (Palo Alto, CA, USA) as the most vocal proponent. Partnerships for developing fuel cells and batteries exist between e.g., GM and Honda; Toyota and BMW; and Daimler (Stuttgart, Germany), Ford (Dearborn, MI, USA), Nissan, and Renault. A compromising approach has been launched in which battery electric vehicles use hydrogen fuel cells as range extenders. The technologies are complementary as well as competing

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