The Baltic Region Information Environment

Abstract

What does the phrasePhrases the ‘BalticBaltic(s) region’ mean? The phrase could be taken to mean the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea, and we deliberately leave room for some ambiguity in the phrasePhrases. Our focus in this chapter, however, is predominantly on what are commonly referred to as the ‘BalticBaltic(s) statesBaltic states’ (Russian: ‘Пpибaлтикa’ or Pribaltika)—that is, EstoniaEstonia, LatviaLatvia– and Lithuania—Lithuaniaand, more widely, the countries bordering them, particularly these three countries’ former cohorts among the 15 former SovietRepublics (former Soviet republics) Republics(former) Soviet republics (Russia and BelarusBelarus (Беларусь)) plus another former Warsaw PactWarsaw Pact and SlavicSlavic country, PolandPoland. The three BalticBaltic(s) StatesBaltic states, or Baltics as we refer to them in shorthand, are unique among former SovietRepublics (former Soviet republics) Republics(former) Soviet republics in that they are now European UnionEU (ЕСCE) and NATONATO (НАТО) members, along with PolandPoland to the south. Yet, given their status as Russia’s former underlings in the Soviet UnionSoviet/Soviet Union, these three states are also seen by MoscowMoscow (Москва) as what is known in Russian as the ‘post-Soviet space’ (пocтcoвeтcкoe пpocтpaнcтвo) or ‘near abroad’ (ближнee зapyбeжьe). We know that Russian President Vladimir Putin(Vladimir) Putin (Путин) has frequently and consistently decried NATO’s eastern expansionNATO expansion, including as recently as June 2021 (TASS 2021). He also stated in 2005 that he considers the breakup of the USSRUSSRUSSR (СССР) the ‘greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the [twentieth] centuryGreatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century’ (‘кpyпнeйшaя гeoпoлитичecкaя кaтacтpoфa вeкa’) (Regnum.ru. 2005). It would be only natural to conclude that the BalticsBaltic(s)’ status now as NATONATO (НАТО) members is seen by Putin’s Russia as a particular affront. Given this, it is perhaps surprising how coy Putin’s(Vladimir) Putin (Путин) statements have been about the BalticsBaltic(s) in particular, in contrast to what he has said about NATONATO (НАТО) generally. (In 2016, for example, Putin(Vladimir) Putin (Путин) called speculation about any intention of Russia to invade the BalticsBaltic ‘nonsense’ [Eesti Rahvusringhääling 2016].) But whatever Russia’s motivationsMotivation under Putin—(Vladimir) Putin (Путин)whether a form of Soviet revanchism or something else—the facts in 2021 are that Russia has already demonstrated its willingness to occupy and annex parts of Ukraine, another former Soviet Republic. While Ukraine, unlike the BalticBaltic(s) statesBaltic states, was and is not a NATONATO (НАТО) or EUEU (ЕСCE) member, the question naturally arises (for example with Russia and Belarus’sBelarus (Беларусь) joint militaryMilitary exercises Zapad-2021) whether something similar could happen in the BalticBaltic(s) region, all three of whose countries borderBorder Russia—and clearly a potential flashpoint in Great Power competitionGreat Power competition/conflict. So, what are the threats and what is their likelihood? These are difficult questions to answer but perhaps a good place to start is what people and experts in the region are saying on the subject.