The Baltic blue growth – A country-level shift-share analysis

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to look into the factors determining blue growth in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) in the long run. To this end, we investigate what part of blue growth is exclusively attributed to external determinants, and, more importantly, what portion relates solely to country-specific competitive advantages. We use a standard shift-share analysis over the period 2009–2018, and, subsequently, extend it by applying the Esteban-Marquillas variation. Our research study provides several insights of relevance for blue growth in the BSR. Firstly, the relatively strong impact of global factors on the BSR maritime economies is revealed. It brings uncertainty to the long-term prospects of blue development in the region. Secondly, it is shown that the EU and national polices seem not to have an impact on the specialization patterns in the BSR. The reasons for this policy failure require, however, further investigation. Thirdly, a series of country-specific branches is identified. Even though some of them are of a traditional character, they might be supplementary to more innovative branches in the process of smart specializations selection. It, however, requires a place-based approach, that is greater regionalization of sectoral targets set out in the maritime development programmes.