The Balkans after the 2004 Enlargement of NATO and the European Union:What Next?

Abstract

So much has been written in the past several years about the Balkans, yet some confusion still exists about what exactly constitutes the region. Therefore, at the outset of this essay, I will first make an attempt to geographically define the Balkans. There are more views—some of them very new—than just this one on the market regarding this issue. Of course, the classical concept still predominates: the Balkans comprises the countries of the Balkan Peninsula, which became part of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle Ages. In the twentieth century, the “Balkans” overlapped with “Southeastern Europe,” and these two notions were used, and very often still are used today, to describe the same geographical area. Recently, some analysts have started referring to three geographical blocs, which today are quite distinct from the security point of view: the classical Balkans, the Black Sea area, and the Caspian area. They are considered to be parts of the northern tier of the most volatile region in the world, known as the “Greater Middle East,” where the most dangerous threats to international security are thought to have their origin. Experts across the Euro-Atlantic community are now combining these three blocs into one larger area called “Greater South-East Europe.” Recently, in July 2003, in Bucharest, the Institute for Political Studies of Defense and Military History, together with the National Defense University from Washington, hosted an international conference devoted to the topic “Southeast European Security after the 2004 Dual Enlargement.” Among the invitees in attendance were experts not only from the classical Balkans, or South-Eastern Europe, but also from the former Soviet republics of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, as well as from Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. Two points should be made here. First, the European Union considers that the classical Balkans are part of its own backyard, and after Romania and Bulgaria are admitted to the Union—hopefully in 2007—the EU will have the Black Sea and other new borders in the east and south-east. The EU is interested in extending stability to the full extent of its new borders—according to its documents, all the way to Moldova, the Caucasus, and the Black Sea. That means beyond the classical Balkans, the borders of Bulgaria and Romania. It seems that, at least in the conception of Brussels, the Balkans remain geographically what they were. On the contrary—and this is the second point— American experts are more inclined to use the concept of Greater South-Eastern Europe, making the Balkans part of it alongside the Black Sea and the Caucasian areas.