Abstract

Given the accelerated global shifts and disruptions to agrifood value chains, an approach is required that reveals multiple drivers, recognizable patterns, and behaviors that can be understood and navigated towards value chain resilience. This research shares roots with and builds further on resilience approaches, the concept of upgrading in global value chains and innovation to contribute to the study of agrifood value chain resilience. The analysis is based on narratives extracted from interviews with local actors in the chain. Narrative, as formed from a combination of temporal succession and causality, helps us track the chain’s historical trajectory, identify critical historical and contemporary drivers of change and actors’ adaptations to historical events, the latest being the Covid-19 pandemic. Our study finds that main drivers, such as natural hazards, market dynamics, actors’ organization, and digital and technological innovation, have been key to Covid-19 adaptation. These constitute crucial areas for policy action and management of systemic risk. For example, previous experience with the fungal disease Foc TR4 one year before the Covid-19 pandemic has been perceived as a key factor in easing Covid-19 adaptation. The analysis shows that some shocks may be challenging to predict, while others may result from the chronic build-up of vulnerabilities, such as the impacts of climate change or the spread of transboundary diseases. As observed in this study, the backbone of overall agrifood value chain resilience and Covid-19 adaptation lie in experiential learning and build on the past; hence, identifying lessons from past innovations is crucial to finding solutions in novel contexts and to deriving opportunities for agrifood value chain development.

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