The Australian growth miracle: an evolutionary macroeconomic explanation

Abstract

An evolutionary macroeconomic approach is applied to explain economic growth in Australia from 1901 to 2008. Support is found for the hypothesis that there were two distinct developmental phases: before and after World War II. The evidence suggests that, in each phase, growth followed an innovation diffusion trajectory made possible by a growing capital stock. In the first phase, capital equipment seems to have augmented labour while, in the second, it reduced labour inputs, replaced by cheap fossil fuel inputs. This allowed significant transfers of labour into an expanding service sector. Strong economies of scale were operative in both phases, with labour hour inputs dominating in the first phase and fossil fuel consumption in the second. The results indicate that the Australian economy currently has very strong growth potential over the coming decade, although its heavy reliance on fossil fuels is viewed as a threat in the medium term.