The attractiveness of seaport-based transport corridors: an integrated approach based on scenario planning and gravity models

Abstract

This paper proposes an innovative foresight methodology to estimate the future port transit throughput volumes in Iran using scenario planning, econometrics, and heuristics calculations. Two critical components of the framework are the gravity models, for estimating potential international trade flows that can pass the ports as transit freight, and the novel approach for calculating the attractiveness of transport corridors. The global business network approach is applied to determine several scenarios using three major driving forces, reflecting the future domestic and international environment affecting Iranian ports transit. For each scenario, a systematic approach is used to quantify the effects of driving forces and obtain port transit throughput for different goods categories. In doing so, the estimated trade flows are assigned to the corridors with the highest attractiveness scores. Major transport corridors such as International North–South Transport Corridor, Belt and Road Initiative, Suez Canal route, TRACECA, Trans Asian Railway, Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC), and Trans-Siberian corridor are taken into account in the assessments. The proposed methodology is not country specific, therefore it could provide valuable insights to port authorities to help cope with uncertainties within the international trade and logistics environment when conducting strategic planning.