Abstract
The article analyses the consequences of elite polarization at the mass level in the centre-periphery dimension. We analyse the rapid rise in support for independence in Catalonia, focusing on the role of party competition around the centre-periphery cleavage. We argue that mainstream actors’ adoption of centrifugal party strategies with respect to the national question produced a polarizing dynamic in the party system that eventually caused voters’ attitudes regarding the centre-periphery issue to harden. Indeed, we posit that this increase in mass polarization was a consequence of party agency that subsequently helped to drive attitudes regarding independence. To test this hypothesis, we measure centre-periphery polarization (as perceived by voters) by adopting two different perspectives—inter-party distances (horizontal polarization) and party-voter distances (vertical polarization)—and then run logistic regressions to explain support for independence. The findings show an asymmetrical effect on polarization. While the centrifugal strategy implemented by Catalan regionalist parties paved the way for a radicalization of voters on the Catalan nationalist side, among voters for non-regionalist parties, attitudes towards independence were initially less conditioned by this polarization. The results provide evidence of the political effects of elite polarization.
Highlights
How does party politics contribute to increasing sup‐ port for independence in a democratic country? The lit‐ erature on secession has tended to emphasize the role of socioeconomic and institutional factors or “precondi‐ tions” in explaining demands for independence (Wood, 1981), in countries that have experienced recent processes of decentralization
If regionalist parties—and Convergència i Unió (CiU)—were embroiled in centrifugal competition, thereby polarizing the electorate’s political attitudes, did this polarization play a role in fostering support for secession? To test our hypotheses, we regress support for secession by different types of polarization and other control vari‐ ables with opinion data from 2012
The results show that both horizontal and vertical national polarization had a significant effect on support for secession
Summary
The lit‐ erature on secession has tended to emphasize the role of socioeconomic and institutional factors or “precondi‐ tions” in explaining demands for independence (Wood, 1981), in countries that have experienced recent processes of decentralization. This perspective usually implies that these demands remain stable over time, as a consequence of ethnic divisions produced in the formation of modern states and the survival of peripheral identities (Flora et al, 2007). Politics and Governance, 2021, Volume 9, Issue 4, Pages 412–425 parties decide to adopt centrifugal strategies concern‐ ing this subject for different reasons Such centrifugal competition in the centre‐periphery cleavage, in combi‐ nation with other factors, may transform voters’ prefer‐ ences for greater self‐government into explicit support for secession. The key driver connecting party compe‐ tition and changes in ideological attitudes is polariza‐ tion, defined here as a shift in political attitudes towards more extreme positions (Campbell, 2016; Dalton, 2008; Sartori, 1976)
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