The asymmetric effects of economic growth, urbanization and deindustrialization on carbon emissions: Evidence from China

Abstract

Under the international environmental constraints formed by the implementation of carbon emissions reductions, China is facing tremendous pressure to reduce emissions while promoting stable economic development. This study analyzes the effects of Chinese economic growth rate, urbanization level, and deindustrialization level on carbon dioxide emissions under different levels of carbon dioxide emissions based on a quantile regression model. The study finds that: (1) In the stage of large carbon emissions, that is, in the stage of extensive economic development, the economic growth rate and carbon emissions have a positive linear curve relationship. (2) When carbon emissions remain at a normal level or even lower than usual, that is, energy resources have not yet been developed under the current economic backwardness or carbon emissions have been effectively controlled, the urbanization level and carbon dioxide emissions have a U-shaped curve relationship. (3) In most cases, the level of deindustrialization has an inverted U-shaped relationship with carbon emissions. (4) When carbon emissions are too large, that is, at the stage of extensive industrial development, the increase of deindustrialization level reduces the effect of economic growth rate on carbon emissions. During periods of low carbon emissions, the increase of deindustrialization level weakens the inhibitory effect of urbanization level on carbon emissions. This research provides a theoretical basis for China to implement emission reduction measures based on its own economic and social stages.