The astronaut and the robot: Short- and long-term scenarios for space technology

Abstract

A series of major accidents - the explosion of the Space Shuttle Challenger, the destruction of Titan and Delta launchers, and failures of the Ariane rocket series - has led to a reexamination of Western space programmes. In the short term, all satellite launches have been delayed. This is not an insurmountable obstacle, although it will inevitably delay the first space-based tests of SDI hardware. The author outlines the growing gap between the immediate needs of organizations which launch satellites and the more uncertain ambitions of the ‘conquerors’ of space. The former are now bearing the costs of the latter, who are aiming at manned space flights and a human presence in space. In the longer term, these objectives have justifications other than simple industrial and commercial logic. The author suggests that an attempt should be made to reconcile immediate military and industrial needs with the human desire to overcome the ‘Icarus complex’ in the long-term future.