The Association Between Vitamin D Levels and the 10-Year Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Population-Based Study.

Abstract

The association between vitamin D levels and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk remains unclear. In this study, the association between serum 25(OH)D and 10-year ASCVD risk was examined in a national sample of middle-aged and older adults. Cross-sectional data from the 2009-2014 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed. The Pooled Cohort Equations were used to estimate the risk of a first ASCVD event in 10 years. An adjusted multiple linear regression model was used to investigate the association between serum 25(OH)D and ASCVD risk. In addition, we performed sensitivity analysis and interactive analysis to assess the robustness of associations across different subgroups. A total of 3354 participants were included in this study. The linear regression model indicated that the risk of ASCVD decreased with the increase in serum 25(OH)D. When analyzed as a continuous variable, serum 25(OH)D was significantly associated with the estimated 10-year risk of ASCVD. In the fully adjusted model, each 10-nmol/L increase in serum 25(OH)D reduced the estimated 10-year ASCVD risk by 0.172% ( P < .001). Individuals in the moderate, insufficient, and sufficient vitamin D deficiency groups had a 0.449% ( P = .362), 0.957% ( P = .046), 1.475% ( P = .003) decrease in ASCVD risk, respectively, when a severe vitamin D deficiency group was set as a reference in the fully adjusted model. Our data suggest a negative association between vitamin D levels and the predicted 10-year risk of ASCVD. Further studies are required to investigate whether vitamin D supplements could reduce the risk of ASCVD.