The association between the incidence of mumps and meteorological parameters in Taiwan

Abstract

Mumps is caused by a paramyxovirus. It is an acute, but mild infectious disease. However, approximately 10% of patients with mumps can develop severe meningoencephalitis, disability, and death. Seasonal patterns in mumps vary across countries, but the reasons for this phenomenon remain unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the role of meteorological factors on mumps infection. We investigated the relationships between weather variability and the incidence of mumps in Taiwan using a Poisson regression analysis and case-crossover methodology. Between 2006 and 2011, 6,612 cases of mumps were reported to the Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan (Taiwan CDC). The incidence of mumps showed a significant seasonality in summertime (for oscillation, P < 0.001). The number of mumps started to increase at temperatures of 20°C (r2 = 0.73, P < 0.001), and the case count of mumps began to decline when the temperatures were higher than approximately 25°C (r2 = 0.24, p = 0.04), producing an inverted V-shaped relationship. Similarly, the number of mumps began to increase at a vapor pressure of 5–9 hPa (r2 = 0.87, P < 0.005) and decreased at a vapor pressure higher than 25–29 hPa (r2 = 0.21, p = 0.05). The number of mumps cases was positively associated with temperature and vapor pressure in the preceding period of the infection. In conclusion, this study showed that the occurrence of mumps is significantly associated with increasing temperature and vapor pressure in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as warning signals indicating the need to implement preventive measures.