Abstract
BackgroundHigh rates of repeat offending are common across nations that are socially and culturally different. Although psychiatric disorders are believed to be risk factors for violent reoffending, the available evidence is sparse and liable to bias.MethodWe conducted a historical cohort study in Sweden of a selected sample of 4828 offenders given community sentences who were assessed by a psychiatrist during 1988–2001, and followed up for an average of 5 years for first violent offence, death, or emigration, using information from national registers. Hazard ratios for violent offending were calculated by Cox regression models.ResultsNearly a third of the sample (n = 1506 or 31.3%) offended violently during follow-up (mean duration: 4.8 years). After adjustment for socio-demographic and criminal history variables, substance use disorders (hazard ratio 1.97, 95% CI, 1.40–2.77) and personality disorders (hazard ratio 1.71, 1.20–2.44) were significantly associated with an increased risk of violent offending. No other diagnoses were related to recidivism risk. Adding information on diagnoses of substance use and personality disorders to data recorded on age, sex, and criminal history improved only minimally the prediction of violent offending.ConclusionDiagnoses of substance use and personality disorders are associated with the risk of subsequent violent offending in community offenders about as strongly as are its better documented demographic and criminal history risk factors. Despite this, assessment of such disorders in addition to demographic and criminal history factors enhances only minimally the prediction of violent offending in the community.
Highlights
High rates of repeat offending are common across nations that are socially and culturally different
After adjustment for socio-demographic and criminal history variables, substance use disorders and personality disorders were significantly associated with an increased risk of violent offending
Adding information on diagnoses of substance use and personality disorders to data recorded on age, sex, and criminal history improved only minimally the prediction of violent offending
Summary
High rates of repeat offending are common across nations that are socially and culturally different. BMC Psychiatry 2008, 8:92 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-244X/8/92 instruments are typically completed by clinical interview and/or review of medical records, and involve scoring individuals on the basis of a set of socio-demographic, criminal history, and clinical risk factors based on research on repeat offending on leaving prisons and secure hospitals. These instruments can heavily influence decisions on sentencing of prisoners, the timing of their release, and the extent of supervision during probation and parole. Most current risk assessment tools utilise information on the presence or absence of a diagnosis of major mental illnesses, personality disorder, and substance use disorders as factors to help stratify the risk of re-offending, despite the paucity of data on what extra information is provided by measurement of these factors [4,5]
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