Abstract
Prisons are the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Media reports have focused on whether transfers of incarcerated people between prisons have been the source of outbreaks. Our objective was to examine the relationship between intersystem prison transfers and COVID-19 incidence in a state prison system. We assessed the change in the means of the time-series of prison transfers and their cross-correlation with the time-series of COVID-19 tests and cases. Regression with automatic detection of multiple change-points was used to identify important changes to transfers. There were over 20,000 transfers between the state's prisons from January through October 2020. Most who were transferred (82%), experienced a single transfer. Transfers between prisons are positively related to future COVID-19 case rates but transfers are not reactive to current case rates. To mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in carceral settings, it is crucial for transfers of individuals between facilities to be limited.
Highlights
Prisons are the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, accounting for most of the largest single site cluster outbreaks in the pandemic [1]
While incremental measures have been put in place in prisons in the state to stop the spread of COVID-19, it is unclear to what extent these measures have been carried out and Intersystem prison transfers and COVID-19 incidence what effect they have had on COVID-19 spread
Carceral institutions continue to be the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States
Summary
Prisons are the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, accounting for most of the largest single site cluster outbreaks in the pandemic [1]. Many factors and policies amplify the risk of COVID-19 infection and transmission, including movements or transfers of people to different facilities within a prison system [2]. Transfers of incarcerated people have been given much attention in the last year. In May 2020, the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation transferred 122 people from the California Institution for Men to its San Quentin facility. San Quentin experienced an outbreak that led to nearly one-third of all incarcerated people having COVID-19 and 28 deaths [3]. On February 1, 2021, the Office of the Inspector General released a report concluding, “California
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