The association between high milk somatic cell counts in the first lactation and somatic cell counts in the second lactation

Abstract

With the advent of web-based recording and analysis systems, individual cow composite somatic cell count (SCC) data are being increasingly used for decision support in mastitis control at both the individual cow and herd level. SCC data from first and second lactation dairy cows (n=1912) from 12 farms were analysed using multinomial logistic regression to investigate possible associations between high SCC patterns in the first lactation and the subsequent lactation. Animals with three non-consecutive counts >200,000 cells/mL in their first lactation were significantly more likely to have three non-consecutive counts >200,000 cells/mL (OR 3.11; 95% CI 1.72-5.62) or three consecutive counts >200,000 cells/mL (OR 2.00; 95% CI 1.09-3.68) in their second lactation. Similarly animals with three consecutive counts >200,000 cells/mL in their first lactation were significantly more likely to have three non-consecutive counts >200,000 cells/mL (OR 1.90; 95% CI 1.13-3.19) or three consecutive counts >200,000 cells/mL (OR 4.14; 95% CI 2.81-6.08) in their second lactation. These findings suggest that patterns established in the first lactation may have an impact on udder health in the subsequent lactation. However, simulation modelling of positive predictive values for the first lactation cell count patterns as predictors of second lactation patterns demonstrated that, at prevalences likely to be encountered on UK dairy farms, the associations were not a sufficient basis for major management decisions such as culling.