The Association between GDP and non-communicable disease mortality in the WHO European Region

Abstract

Abstract Background The WHO Europe Region consists of 53 countries, each of which has differences in mortality from cardiovascular (CVD), neurological, and chronic respiratory diseases. Such diverse metrics result from political, social, and economic events that have influenced the health performance of each European sub-region. From a public health perspective, an updated analysis of such metrics is required for policymakers and health system organisations to improve the overall population health outcomes. Methods This study utilised data between 1990-2017 from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017 to explore the association between GDP and NCD mortality in Western, Central, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The mortality data was already stratified by age and sex, and a fixed effected regression analysis was run to observe associations between both variables using STATA. Data completeness was 80-100% for GDP and 100% for mortality across the European region. The final results were reported as a rate per 100,000, with confidence intervals. The rate changes were calculated using an equation from the GBD. Results The most significant decrease per 100,000 of the population across all three NCDs as GDP increased was in Central Asia and Eastern Europe among both sexes. For every 1000 unit increase in GDP, we expect -12.13 [-13.60, -10.66] and -14.49 [-16.89, -12.29] less deaths in CVD in females and males per 100,000 of population, respectively. Western Europe had the lowest decrease per 100,000 of the population, as with every 1000 unit increase in GDP, we expect -2.42 [-2.59, -2.25] and -4.09 [-4.33, -3.84] fewer deaths in CVD in females and males, respectively. Conclusions The overall differential rate of mortality from the three NCDs is decreasing across all regions. However, there is a large disparity between the sexes. Males have a higher mortality rate across CVD and chronic respiratory diseases, whilst neurological disorders were highest among females. Key messages This study’s analysis has added to existing knowledge on chronic health patterns in the WHO European region. Governments in Eastern Europe and Central Asia should introduce health policies targeting unhealthy consumption of alcohol, smoking and diets, as seen in Western Europe.