The assessment of water erosion using Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling: A study in a legally protected area with environmental land use conflicts.

Abstract

Water erosion has historically been assessed by various methods, with the purpose to help reducing this phenomenon. However, application of models capable to handle complex relationships between large numbers of variables is still relatively scarce. The method of Partial Least Squares-Path Modeling (PLS-PM), used in this study, was able to expose complex causal paths between soil erosion and potentially related factors, namely "Surface Runoff", "Environmental Land Use Conflicts", "Soil Fertility" and "Relief Factors", within the Environmental Protection Area of Uberaba River Basin (EPA) located in Minas Gerais state, Brazil. In the context of PLS-PM, soil erosion (dependent) and the related factors (independent) are called latent variables and described by measured or estimated parameters. For example, the "Relief Factors" were described by measured drainage density and topographic slope. These were linked to the corresponding latent variables through weights and the later joined to each other through paths. During the PLS-PM runs, weights and paths were quantified and latent variables interpreted in regard to their importance for soil erosion and spatial incidence. The spatial incidence was used to prioritize areas for soil conservation. To test the model, data were obtained from soil samples (texture and fertility parameters) or digitally extracted from cartographic products (e.g., maps of soil loss, land use, brightness index, topographic slope, drainage density), at 37 sites within the EPA. The PLS-PM results revealed that 70.2% of soil erosion is predicted by the independent variables (R2 = 0.702), and that "Soil Fertility" and "Environmental Land Use Conflicts" were the most influencing ones (β = -0.758 and β = 0.346, respectively). These variables can be managed by man, through implementation of effective soil conservation measures and respect for suitable land use. It is therefore urgent to act in these regard, considering the socioeconomic and environmental importance of the EPA.