Abstract
Land use and climate change are the two major driving factors of watershed runoff change, and it is of great significance to study the influence of watershed hydrological processes on water resource planning and management. This study takes the Changyang River basin as the study area, builds a SWAT model and explores the applicability of the SWAT model in the basin. Moreover, we combine data on land use and climate change in different periods to construct a variety of scenario models to quantitatively analyze the impacts of different scenarios on runoff. The results show that the R2 and Ensof the model are 0.71 and 0.68 in the calibration period, respectively, and those in the verification period are 0.68 and 0.65, respectively, indicating that the SWAT model has good applicability in simulating the runoff of the Changyang River basin. Under the comprehensive scenario of land use and climate change on runoff, we found that land use and climate change have a certain contribution to the change in runoff. Therefore, the runoff of the basin increased by 0.22 m3/s, in which land-use change caused the runoff in the basin to increase by 0.07 m3/s attributed to the decreased area of arable land and the increased area of urban land in the basin. Moreover, climate change has caused the runoff in the basin to increase by 0.13 m3/s, mainly influenced by the increased precipitation. The results show that climate change has a more significant effect on runoff in the basin.
Highlights
Water resources are the foundation of sustainable socioeconomic development [1,2]
It is of great significance to study the impact of land use and climate change on runoff for future water resource planning and development [15,16]
28 parameters are related to runoff in the SWAT model, and we selected 15 parameters for sensitivity analysis
Summary
In recent decades, due to the impact of global climate change, the quantity of water resources has decreased worldwide, which has gradually become an important constraining factor on future socioeconomic development [3,4]. Changes in runoff are mainly affected by climate change, land use, and human activities [9]. In recent years, with the increase in human activity intensity, land use has changed, affecting surface morphology, soil conditions, and surface cover, causing changes in evapotranspiration and infiltration in the basin. [14] Climate change and land use can both affect runoff directly and indirectly. It is of great significance to study the impact of land use and climate change on runoff for future water resource planning and development [15,16]
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