Abstract
The historical eruptive activity at Colima Volcano has been characterized by Strombolian and Merapi type eruptions and Vulcanian explosions associated with dome growth, which have ended in a Plinian eruption about every 100 years. The situation now prevailing at Colima Volcano is similar to that which preceded these explosive eruptions, when a dome fills the crater. This study proposes seven scenarios for the ash-fall from a Plinian eruption, based on historical eruptive activity, isopach thickness from the 1913 Plinian eruption, land use, socioeconomic data, and a 15-year statistical wind study realized with daily radiosonde data grouped according to four altitudinal levels: 4,000-9,000 (I); 9,000-14,000 (II); 14,000-17,000 (III) and 17,000-28,000 (IV) m a.s.l., based on common wind speeds and directions. We have integrated the wind distribution at level IV and estimated the ash dispersion for a Plinian eruption. From January to March, the main impact would be towards the northeast, in April and in October, towards the east, in May, towards the north-northeast or north-northwest, from June to August, towards the northwest, in September, towards the west, and in November and December, towards the west-southwest. The fallout would damage the coniferous forests of the Colima National Park, two lagoons and three lakes. More than 30 million people living in Guadalajara, Mexico City, Leon and Colima would suffer eye, respiratory and skin problems. The proximal areas, such as Ciudad Guzman, would be subject to roof collapsing and communication problems. The agricultural and livestock sectors would suffer severe financial losses. The Queseria sugar mill, the Atenquique paper mill, and the cement plants in Zapotiltic would halt work due to chimney obstruction and machinery abrasion. Four thermoelectric plants, twenty airports and four commercial ports would be affected if the eruption occurs in summer.
Highlights
Colima Volcano (CV; 19 ̊30 ́44 ̋ N; 103 ̊37 ́02 ̋ W) is located in the western part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt at nearly 4,000 m above sea level (a.s.l.), and it is one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico (Figure 1)
We identify and evaluate the areas that will be vulnerable to ash-fall in Plinian eruption scenarios, based on analyses of historical eruptive activity, isopach thickness from the 1913 eruption, a vertical wind study, and socioeconomic characteristics of the cities involved
Historical analysis has shown that CV has a cyclic behaviour, with a VEI 4 Plinian eruption that destroys the central dome occurring approximately every 100 years
Summary
Colima Volcano (CV; 19 ̊30 ́44 ̋ N; 103 ̊37 ́02 ̋ W) is located in the western part of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt at nearly 4,000 m above sea level (a.s.l.), and it is one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico (Figure 1). In the 1913 eruption, more than 732,426 inhabitants were affected by ash-fall, while from 1913 to 2005, the population in the same area increased to more than 5 million people (Table 1). The scenario constructions for CV are here based on ash-fall depths, and take into account the isopach thickness from the 1913 Plinian eruption (Table 4), the dominant wind direction, the total number of people, and the main economic activities, land use and communications infrastructures.
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