The ARTICO study: identification of patients at high risk of vascular recurrence after a first non-cardioembolic stroke.

Abstract

BackgroundAbout 20% of patients with a first ischaemic stroke will experience a new vascular event within the first year. The atherosclerotic burden, an indicator of the extension of atherosclerosis in a patient, has been associated with the risk of new cardiovascular events in the general population. However, no predictive models reliably identify groups at a high risk of recurrence. The ARTICO study prospectively analysed the predictive value for the risk of recurrence of specific atherosclerotic markers.MethodsThe multicentre ARTICO study included 620 consecutive independent patients older than 60 years suffering from a first non-cardioembolic stroke. We analysed classical stroke risk factors; duplex study of supraaortic trunk including intima-media thickness (IMT) measurement; quantification of internal carotid (ICA) stenosis; number, morphology and surface characteristics of carotid plaques; ankle brachial index (ABI); and the presence of microalbuminuria. Patients were followed up at 6 and 12 months after inclusion. The primary end-point was death or major cardiovascular events.ResultsAny vascular event or death at 12 months occurred in 78 (13.8%) patients. In 40 (7.1%) of these the vascular event was a stroke recurrence. Weight, history of diabetes mellitus, history of symptomatic PAD, ABI <0.9 and significant ICA stenosis (>50%) were associated with a higher risk of vascular events on follow-up in the bivariate analysis.In the final Cox regression analysis, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes mellitus, symptomatic PAD (HR, 2.76; 95% CI, 1.10–6.95; p=0.03), and particularly patients with both ICA stenosis >50% and PAD (HR 4.52; 95% CI, 2.14-9.53; p<0.001) were independently associated with an increased risk of vascular events. Neither isolated ICA stenosis >50% nor isolated abnormal ABI remained associated with an increased risk of recurrence in comparison with the whole population.ConclusionsSymptomatic PAD identifies a high risk group of vascular recurrence after a first non-cardioembolic stroke. The associated increased risk was particularly high in patients with both ICA stenosis and either symptomatic or asymptomatic PAD. Neither asymptomatic PAD alone nor isolated ICA stenosis >50% were associated with an increased risk of recurrence in this particularly high-risk group of non-cardioembolic stroke.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12883-015-0278-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.