The arms race as a hypergame

Abstract

There are many possible explanations for the current arms race, some incompatible, some complementary. Here, the hypergame approach is used to present some simple alternative models, reflecting different perceptions that might underlie national behaviour. The possibility that each side in the race is primarily motivated by genuine fear of the other is considered, and then the question of why such a cycle of distrust may be so difficult to break. It is argued that many faulty decisions result not from incompetent analysis, but through inadequate problem definition — ‘asking the wrong question’. Practical consequences of this argument are outlined.