The Arctic Ocean Multi-Year Ice Balance, 1979-82

Abstract

A method of determining the temporally varying “state” of the ice cover (the concentrations of three surface types: open water, first-year ice, and multi-year ice) is presented. The methodology is that of Kalman smoothing: a physical model and a measurement model are used to blend satellite passive microwave data and buoy data to give an optimal estimate of the ice state. The estimates are optimal only to the degree that model parameter values are known and assumptions about variances are met. Uncertainty about these values and assumptions, and lack of independent data with which to compare results,leaves self-consistency as the most important test of results. A four-year record (1979-82) of the estimated Arctic Ocean ice balance is presented and shown to be self-consistent. Results are discussed in terms of the Arctic multi-year ice balance, which may be an important factor in the interaction ofocean, sea ice and climate because of its relationship to the minimum summer ice extent. The estimated area of multi-year ice decreases each year, but the decrease is small and insignificant based on four years of results. Furthermore, the observed decrease may be due to instrument drift or changes in the multi-year ice signature.