Abstract
Since 1980s, Chinese government has taken a series of reforms to the traditional medical insurance system, but it still remained to get medical service unaffordably. The high medical fees and the decreasing balance of medical insurance fund are existed at the same time, thus the problem of researching social medical insurance hazard is becoming an urgent task. The article brings the theory of fuzzy probability in fuzzy math applied to social medical insurance hazard assessment. The model has fully considered the fuzziness and randomness of medical insurance with clearly rationality and reliability, providing new views for establishing effective medical insurance against hazard system. Key words: Basic medical insurance; Fuzzy probability; Moral hazard
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