The Application of the Devil’s Advocacy Technique to Intelligence Analysis

Abstract

Understanding evolving situations and predicting future events are significant challenges in the intelligence sphere. These necessitate advanced techniques for intelligence collection and robust evaluation procedures to enhance the accuracy of predictions. The Devil’s Advocacy technique can be employed to improve analysis procedures by challenging prevailing views and mitigating the risk of cognitive biases. This paper examines the effectiveness of the Devil’s Advocacy technique when applied to intelligence analysis, by evaluating its strengths, weaknesses, and applicability, through a comprehensive literature review and empirical research involving experienced practitioners in New Zealand. Previous studies examining the Devil’s Advocacy technique primarily focused on its contribution to decision-making on the final intelligence product and on the perceptions of the devil’s advocate. These are important, but this paper is also concerned with the analysts’ experience of practically applying the technique for intelligence analysis. This paper contends that the Devil’s Advocacy technique is an attractive complementary technique which is effective in specific situations. It also reveals that New Zealand intelligence practitioners define, perceive, and apply the Devil’s Advocacy technique differently across their organisations. It therefore argues that New Zealand practitioners may have an inconsistent understanding of the technique, indicating potential gaps in the training and education of New Zealand intelligence professionals. However, the inherently subjective nature of the technique itself could also be a contributing factor.