The application of reweighted Markov chains in water-sediment prediction in inland river basins—A case study of the Shiyang River Basin

Abstract

River runoff and sediment play a crucial role in shaping river morphology, providing water resources and maintaining the water ecological balance of the watershed. In this paper, the runoff and sediment transport from 1975 to 2011 at the Jiutiao Ridge hydrological station in the Shiyang River basin are selected as the experimental period, and the runoff and sediment transport from 2011 to 2016 are selected as the validation period. Using a reweighted Markov chain, the correlation analysis of the annual runoff and the overhanging mass sediment transport in the Jiutiao Ridge hydrological station in the Shiyang River basin has been performed to predict the future changes of runoff and sediment transport in the Shiyang River. From the prediction results, it can be seen that there is limited error between the predicted value and the actual value, which can validate the application of Markov prediction method in hydrological water and sand, as well as provide a basis for future water resource management and optimization of the Shiyang River basin.