The Application of Monte Carlo Simulation on Cement Sales of Al-burj Cement Plant in Zliten For The Purpose of Quantifying And Estimating The Market Demand

Abstract

Nowadays, there is a need to improve the production of cement in Libya to meet high levels of market demand and eliminate the most possible levels of waste. In this study, the technique of Monte Carlo (MC) Simulation is applied using the cement monthly sales quantities record in all 2018 as obtained from the marketing department of Al-burj Plant. The technique is used via quantifying the amounts of cement in metric tons demanded by the market on monthly basis, to estimate the market daily and monthly need for cement to participate in reducing the waste and satisfying the consumer. The results of both monthly and yearly demand are simulated to be: 199,539.801 and 2,394,477.608 metric tons of cement respectively. This technique is applied to reduce, if not to eliminate any cost or waste as a result of shortage or overproduction within this continuous massive flow process of producing cement, from the lean manufacturing perspective. The annual designed capacity of the plant is partially neglected, because, it is most likely, the plant actual production does not reach the annual designed capacity, where, the waste percentage is very huge between the designed and actual capacity of the plant as posted in (2016 - 2018), due to many reasons. Also, the market demand of cement always fluctuates up and down along days and months of the year. Unless "the majeure force" is underway, the technique should be applied at any cement plant in Libya to avoid shortage or overproduction and satisfy the consumer.