The application Of Fourier Prediction Models To Schedule Paddy Growing Season With High Resolution For Upgrading Farm Capacity Building (Case Study in Indramayu Regency)

Abstract

Indonesian government still has obstacles in the production of annual paddy harvest and planting which causes a decrease 20 percent drop in National production. The failure of one of them caused by weather patterns and climate change that makes farmers difficult to plan future activities with good crop calender. That is because the coming of the rainy season at this moment cannot be predicted precisely. To that end, the role of technology in model and estimate the precise rainfall (high resolution) becomes very important. The developing Fourier prediction models to become agriculture information system was user friendly for instructor/extension officers and farmers who can overcome this problem. The agriculture information models are developed to determine the time of crop calendar weighted maps with rice terraces whom government services, scout and farmers at Indramayu regency easily wears it. The sum of sinus models is used alternatively to predict deciles futures and monthly rainfalls for one year ahead produce a 0.97 correlation with the observed data in Indramayu region.The residue of the sum of sinus models became anomalous rainfall for instan ENSO can cause forward and late in rainfall season. Basically by using a method of curve fitting Sum of Sine results turned out to be related to the monsoon event and climate classification that indicate to distribute annual. While residue model shows cycles of 28.89,61.79 and 80.9 months. These frequencies are related to ENSO event. The Schmidt & Ferguson climate classification of rainfalls and wind monthly conclude Indramayu Regency dominate by type of wet and dry monthly. Map early in the season prediction and map early the planting of rice that have been tested since the start built 2008 is currently being updated with a system software, so that will make it easier for farmers and extension officers as well as related service to apply it on crop calendar.