The Application of Dynamic-Analytic Techniques to Criminal Justice Planning and Evaluation

Abstract

The general inadequacy of the sources of data in criminal justice for evaluation and planning has been apparent for some time. Among those factors which contribute to the inadequacy of much crime data are the following: (1) generally it is limited to one particular stage of criminal processing; (2) measurements are in the form of summary statistics; (3) it is specific to one agency in that each collects and reports its own summary tabulations; (4) the unit of count changes with different organizational structures. In sum, existing sources of data frequently measure only one temporal point and this fails to reflect the dynamic aspects of criminal processing. Similarly, many of the analytic techniques used for evaluation are static and do not reflect the dynamic aspect of the system. In light of such considerations, this paper explores the utility of various dynamic-analytic techniques in conjunction with longitudinal sources of data. The following include some of the more important implications for future evaluation. First, the development of a sophisticated systems model to assist in the selection and verification of outcome measures. Second, a reconceptualization of the outcome measures normally used in evaluation studies in order to conceive of the total system as a critical outcome measure in evaluative studies. Third, the development of a model to assist in the planning process that precedes evaluation. This may be accomplished by providing a mechanism for the simulation of change, thus predicting the future impact of changes in the system.