The application of artificial neural networks to flow and phosphorus dynamics in small streams on the Boreal Plain, with emphasis on the role of wetlands

Abstract

Historically, management strategies in Canada's boreal forest have focused on forest polygons and terrestrial biodiversity to address ecological considerations in forest management. The Forest Watershed and Riparian Disturbance (FORWARD) project examines the problem from a watershed perspective rather than a forest polygon viewpoint. The main objective of this study was to devise an artificial neural network (ANN) modeling tool that can predict flow and total phosphorus (TP) concentration for ungauged watersheds (where daily flow is not monitored). This dictates that all inputs should be easily accessed via a public domain database, like the Environment Canada weather database, without the need to install flow gauges in each modeled watershed. Daily flow and TP concentration for two of the project watersheds were modeled using ANNs. The two watersheds (1A Creek, 5.1 km 2 and Willow Creek, 15.6 km 2) were chosen to reflect variations in wetland area and composition in the study area. Flow was modeled with a feed-forward multilayer perceptron ANN trained with the error back-propagation algorithm. Simulated values for flow were then used, as inputs, to model TP concentration using the same neural networks algorithm. One hidden layer with three slabs; each operating with a different activation function was utilized to simulate the conceptual differences between base flow, snowmelt, and storm events. Time domain analysis was conducted to identify possible model time-lagged inputs reflecting the time dependency of the modeled variables. Spectral analysis was used to address data hystereses. Our results highlight the capabilities of ANN in modeling complex ecosystems and highly correlated variables. Results also indicated that more research towards the phosphorus dynamics in wetlands is required to better represent the impact of wetland area and composition on the water-phase phosphorus in ANN modeling.