The Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in Combination with PESTEL-SWOT Analysis to Assess the Hydrocarbons Sector in Cyprus

Michail Tsangas,Lionel Limousy,Mejdi Jeguirim,Antonis Zorpas

doi:10.3390/en12050791

Abstract

Natural gas reserves have been recently found offshore of Cyprus. Hence, a new energy sector is under development, creating potential for raised welfare for the small insular EU member. Several social and economic benefits could be achieved from the resources’ exploitation. However, natural gas is a non-renewable energy source, connected with the major environmental issues of fossil fuels. The research goal of this work was to evaluate the sustainability of the new hydrocarbons sector. This was attained using a set of indicators, developed from the combination of PESTEL (Political, Economic, Technical, Social, Environmental, Legal) and SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analyses. These were quantified using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) weighting method. They were pairwise compared and evaluated, resulting to a size for each one. The judgements of four evaluators, representing diverse interested parties, were used. The strengths and opportunities of the sector were found to be more than the weaknesses and threats. The relevant indicators quantification demonstrates also that the value of the positives is higher than the negatives. Therefore, if the first are enhanced and the latter are mitigated, there is sustainability potential. The sectors environmental issues are evaluated as the most important, followed by the economic. The other takes lower but comparatively significant values, and must be handled accordingly. These results lead to useful conclusions and could be exploited for decision-making and policies formulation.

Highlights

Cyprus is a small insular EU member Country located in the southeastern Mediterranean.The energy system of the island is based on imported oil-fired electricity generation with a limited contribution of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and biomass [1,2]
Other licenses have been granted to international Oil and Gas companies and related hydrocarbon prospection activities in other areas, within the island Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), are underway [3]
It must be noted that EN1 is a strength with a positive value and EN2 is a weakness with a negative value

Summary

Introduction

Cyprus is a small insular EU member Country located in the southeastern Mediterranean.The energy system of the island is based on imported oil-fired electricity generation with a limited contribution of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and biomass [1,2]. Other licenses have been granted to international Oil and Gas companies and related hydrocarbon prospection activities in other areas, within the island Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), are underway [3]. These local energy sources exploitation could increase incomes and strengthen the energy supply security [5] for Cyprus. Such context could be a force for moving toward the economic and welfare growth of the island

Objectives

Results

Discussion

Conclusion