The applicability of sunshine-based global solar radiation models modified with meteorological factors for different climate zones of China

Abstract

With the development of renewable energy, the exploitation and utilization of solar energy resources also need continuous progress, but solar radiation data shortage has become a serious concern. A method for estimating global solar radiation has been developed to address this issue. The sunshine-based model is currently the most widely used model due to its high calculation accuracy and few input parameters. This paper will first review 13 subcategories (8 categories in total) of the global solar radiation prediction model based on sunshine. Subsequently, the astronomical factors were introduced to modify empirical coefficients, and 8 new categories of models based on sunshine rate were introduced. The radiation data from 83 meteorological stations in China was used to train and validate the model, and the performance of the model was evaluated by using evaluation indicators, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute bias error (MABE), mean bias error (MBE), and global performance index (GPI). The results show that the R2 value of the unmodified empirical model is in a range of 0.82–0.99, and the RMSE value is in a range of 0.018–3.09. In contrast, with the introduction of the astronomical factor, the model accuracy improves significantly, and the modified power function model (N3) gains its best performance. The R2 of model N3 is in a range of 0.86–0.99, and the RMSE value is in a range of 0.018–2.62. The R2 increases by 0.49%, while the RMSE value 6.44%. Above all, it does not require the input of other meteorological parameters for predicting the value of global solar radiation.