Abstract
Recreational vessel accidents during summer seasons in Adriatic Sea frequently occur when seasonal traffic significantly increases. In this paper, the database containing data on recreational vessel groundings from 2013 up to 2019 has been analyzed. Data distributions have been calculated, and characteristic patterns are noted. Statistical auto-regressive model SARIMAX has been used to create existing grounding data time-series, and to forecast trends for the next five years. The findings show that majority of groundings happen during night hours, suggesting that dominant causes of those accidents are human error related. Weather conditions have also been detected as one of causes of groundings, particularly north-east winds and thunderstorms. The slowly increasing trend of annual groundings is forecasted and recommendation to improve skipper’s education and training has been given to mitigate future increase.
Highlights
During summer season, maritime traffic in Croatian waters increases substantially because of tourism activity
The findings show that majority of groundings happen during night hours, suggesting that dominant causes of those accidents are human error related
Results of the seasonal ARIMAX(3,1,3)X(3,1,1)12 model trained with data-set up to Jan 1st 2018 and verified on test data-set from that date up to the end of available data are plotted on Fig. 3
Summary
Maritime traffic in Croatian waters increases substantially because of tourism activity. Grounding has been detected to be among the most common type of accidents of these vessels [12]. Frančić [5] found that grounding is the most common type of accident in Croatian waters among passenger vessels. The risk of grounding has been analyzed for generally larger vessels [1, 8, 14] but the data used do not account for small recreational vessels. In those studies, locally high traffic volume and human factor are generally recognized as the primary cause of accidents, as well as propulsion/steering system failure for large vessels
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