Abstract
This study is a preliminary and experimental one to analyze Japan’s energy transitions to mitigate climate change from anticipatory governance aspects. Japan’s energy policy principles have been energy security, environmental considerations, economic efficiency, and safety (3E + S). According to the energy agency, the long-term energy outlook is also drawn up by “ambitious multiple track scenarios” and “multilayered and diversified flexible energy supply-demand structure.” This approach resonates with the aspects of anticipatory governance. It promotes the idea of preparing for multiple future scenarios, including the unthinkable worst case future scenario such as a nuclear accident (foresight), the interactions between the policymakers and the public (engagement), and the reflexive processes of policy innovations with a normative decision for the selection of energy mix (integration). However, this study finds that Japan’s energy policy lacks the aspects of anticipatory governance. It sticks to fixed energy policy institutionalized in the 1970s to promote nuclear energy and coal as oil alternatives. It rarely has interactions between the policymakers and the public and thus lacks a societal (normative) decision about a future energy path to energy transitions to mitigate climate change. Instead, Japan’s energy policy has not necessarily met its declared policy objective of 3E + S since the unprecedented Fukushima nuclear accidents occurred and cannot uphold an ambitious target for CO2 emissions reduction.
Highlights
We face various complex governance problems and “wicked” problems
The author finds the concept of anticipatory governance significant to analyze Japan’s energy transitions to mitigate climate change
The definitions and the components of anticipatory governance mentioned above are to address the concerns about the utilization of new emerging technologies such as nanotechnology, geoengineering, and genetically modified organisms (GMOs), they share the common features of anticipatory governance in the fields of public policymaking about various issues including climate change, market volatility, and terrorism
Summary
We face various complex governance problems and “wicked” problems. Energy transitions are complex governance problems in which multilayers of different actors with conflicting interests and goals involve different and contesting values that exist on policy goals such as energy security and sustainability, a range of uncertainties in knowledge, and future technological developments. Japan’s climate change policy [5], while Watanabe presents a well-structured comparative analysis of climate change policy in Germany and Japan [6] All of these studies are robust empirical studies, either historical, analytical, descriptive, or comparative. Appreciating their studies, this article attempts to incorporate a normative aspect imperative to deal with energy transitions and climate change. We can prepare for the worst-case scenario by imagining the unimaginable to reduce the damages as much as possible, making a normative decision about what kind of future we want to have In this sense, the author finds the concept of anticipatory governance significant to analyze Japan’s energy transitions to mitigate climate change. This chapter employs the process-tracing method [7], giving a detailed account of the critical decision-making processes and describing the core elements of energy policy closely related to climate change policy
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