Abstract
Abstract: Durable consumer goods are people's indispensable component in the life. Since the reform and opening, with people's income growth, people's consumption structure transformation and the people's consumption dramatically, people for the changes in the concept of the consumer durables increase gradually. Based on the data of Beijing urban residents, according to the possession of durable goods through building of Gompertz model for urban residents’ possession of durable goods the developing trend of the description, and make the short-term forecast. Key words: Gompertz Model; Durable Goods; Economical forecasting
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