The analysis of coffee productivity and production improvement strategies in Indonesia: A system thinking approach

Abstract

Coffee is one of the productive sectors of agriculture in Indonesia that is known worldwide. Extensive coffee production has made this country the number four coffee producer in the world. However, coffee production does not increase continually due to fluctuations. The problems faced in the coffee production system are involved in terms of the various aspects that affect it. In this study, we use a system thinking approach to develop and simulate the computational model with system dynamics (SD) to explore Indonesia’s coffee production systems’ interactions. This study uses the model to evaluate each trigger’s role in determining each influential variable’s causal roles, including the land sub-model, productivity sub-model, and coffee post-production. This modeling results produce a causal loop diagram (CLD) of mapping strategies and can be considered for decision-makers and farmers. We found that coffee production’s potential strategy is to increase its productivity with various efforts to improve human resources, proper management of plant resources, and agricultural technology by the appropriate investment modeling. While this study presents a stand-alone contribution to knowledge and practice in a production sub-sector, this could encourage future research in the coffee plantation sector that uses simulation system-based methods and specific scenarios based on information systems to support strategic policy.