The analysis and forecast of Chinese population using ARIMA model

Abstract

Although China's population problem has always attracted much attention, most of the literature focuses on China's family planning policy and China's aging population, and there is a lack of analysis and research on China's population forecast. However, China's population problem is closely related to the economic development of China's future society, the contradiction between people and land, the trend of population aging and environmental pollution, therefore, this paper decides to use the time series model in R language to predict the future population of China. The method used throughout the process was time series and linear regression in R language, and the data of Chinese population in the past years was fit in the ARIMA models to make forecast for Chinese future population. The results show that in the next decade, China's population growth rate is still showing a trend of further decline, and in the next period of time, this trend is difficult to change. China's total population is generally growing slowly, and the status quo of a large and slow population base is unlikely to change in the near future.