Abstract
Business in the United States is admittedly on a war basis today, and the security market is simply reflecting that abnormal condition. Preceding historic booms in the stock market have usually had as their principal cause some one central idea. An overworked public imagination, obsessed with some widely advertised idea, has usually been responsible for a rise in price levels far beyond the limits of reason. In 1899 the public mind was inflamed by the prospect of large gains from industrial combinations at greatly inflated prices for the constituent companies. In 1901 the possibilities of railway mergers proved to be the moving spirit. In 1906 it was the prospect of greatly increased dividends. In 1909 the alluring bait was melon cutting and the distribution of accumulated assets. At present it seems to be belief in the prosecution of the world's greatest war for some time to come, with the prospect of continued fabulous war profits.
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