The Aids Pandemic: Global Geographical Patterns and Local Spatial Processes

Abstract

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has 2 main strains HIV-1 which causes most of the AIDS cases and HIV-2. HIV-2 was first isolated in 1986. 2 hypotheses have been proposed to explain the distinctive geographical spread of AIDS in Uganda based on the 12444 reported AIDS cases by plotting the cumulative AIDS case rates per 100000 population for each of the 34 districts based on the 1989 midpoint population estimates (possible inaccurate) generated from the 1980 Ugandan Census. The southern districts of Rakai Masaka and Kampala cumulative AIDS case incidence rates range between 167 and 517/100000 population and may be compared with the national rate of 74/100000. In the north of Uganda AIDS incidence is 255/100000 centered on Gulu and neighboring districts. The migrant labor hypothesis holds that HIV-1 has diffused from urban areas of labor supply through a process of return migration. The truck-town hypothesis proposes that in the geographical distribution of HIV-1 and AIDS major roads act as the principal corridors of virus spread. The 4 measures of urbanization and 4 principal routes were defined and tested by regression models 1-6. The statistically insignificant explained variation in AIDS rates ranges from .2% to 17%. Regression model 7 probing AIDS incidence in migrant labor shows a similar result. In contrast model 8 exploring army ethnic recruitment rates and AIDS rates indicates a highly significant positive relationship between the 2 variables where the recruitment patterns account for 43% of the AIDs rate variability and the contribution of the intercept coefficient is also significant statistically. The extreme economic and social effects of the disease likely to soar during the 1990s may be averted in many countries by reducing the increase of new infections through education and slowing the progression to AIDS through chemotherapy.