The Agricultural Potential of a Region with Semi-Dry, Warm and Temperate Subhumid Climate Diversity through Agroecological Zoning

Abstract

The sustainability of the natural resources used in agricultural production is essential to meet the future food needs of the population. It is necessary to understand the characteristics of climate and soil changes through agroclimatic zoning models, even with non-existent or limited climatic and edaphic databases, to avoid a decline in production. The objective of the study was to determine the accuracy of the Global Agroecological Zoning (GAEZ), ECOCROP and Papadakis models for major cereals, vegetables and fruit trees in the state of Nuevo León, Mexico, using the databases of climatic stations and soil profiles collected by INEGI with random sampling in the field. The model with the best projection was ECOCROP, which predicted 37,609 km2 of irrigated area for sorghum and 34,796 km2 for wheat, in addition to identifying by soil characteristics rainfed areas with higher suitability for beans measuring 8470 km2 and orange measuring 6175 km2 with zoning predictions based on field information. In conclusion, the thematic maps obtained with ECOCROP had an accuracy greater than 50% for more than half of the crops analyzed, making it the best method for the study area. Therefore, the food production decisions of the producers must be directed towards cereal crops based on the projected area; however, it is necessary to establish an updating program and generate edaphoclimatic databases, updating thematic soil and climate maps with models that support the projections verified in the field.