The affordability of food at the regional level: Evidence from the Krasnoyarsk Krai

Abstract

Subject. The article investigates the impact of trends in food prices and real public income on the affordability of food. Objectives. We determine the current situation in the affordability of food and make a short-term forecast of the demand and consumption of food products in the Krasnoyarsk Krai. Methods. The methodology was based on the comparative analysis and matching of the price for certain combinations of food products as per the actually existing consumption model and rational food consumption rates. Furthermore, we examined what made up the price for the combination of food products by product group. The article also traces the dynamics for 2017–2020. The study refers to evidence from the Krasnoyarsk Krai. Results. The average price for food products was found to exceed the actual consumption price by 12 percent in 2020. For the analyzable period, households' spending on food products and a combination of food products grew by 10.4 percent on average and 5.6 percent as per rational rates respectively. The actual consumption of bread and flour products, potato and meat products exceed the rate by 19 kg, 10.3 kg and 7 kg per annum respectively. The consumption of vegetable and fruits, dairy products are obviously lower than the rate. The actual consumption is dominated by dairy products (27.09%), meat products (23.37%) and chicken eggs (16.63%). According to studies, considering the current level of income, the acquisition of food products is significantly difficult for about 26 percent of people, while 43 percent of people simply cannot afford to buy food products by rational rates. Conclusions and Relevance. For the analyzable period, food products became less affordable for a significant number of people, which can get critical in the mid run. Considering the continuing growth in prices and a decline in income, the situation triggers threats to the social sustainability and economic security of the Krasnoyarsk Krai.