Abstract
Abstract. Kilometric-resolution Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) will be the new state-of-the-art forecasting tools for short-range prediction in the following decade. Their value will be even greater in Antarctica due to the increasingly demanding weather forecasts for logistic services. During the 2018–2019 austral summer (1 December–31 March), coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere Special Observation Period of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), the 2.5 km AEMET-γSREPS was operationally integrated over the Antarctic Peninsula. In particular, the Antarctic version of γSREPS comes up with crossing four non-hydrostatic convection-permitting NWP models at 2.5 km with three global NWP driving models as boundary conditions. The γSREPS forecasting system has been validated in comparison with ECMWF EPS. It is concluded that γSREPS has an added value to ECMWF EPS due to both its higher resolution and its multi-boundary conditions and multi-NWP model approach. γSREPS performance has a positive impact on logistic activities at research stations and its design may contribute to polar prediction research.
Highlights
Logistic actors play a decisive role in Antarctica
We show an objective validation of the ensembles and one case study where γ SREPS successfully helped the weather forecaster on duty in the decision-making process
The AEMET-γ SREPS (Frogner et al, 2019; Quintero Plaza and García-Moya Zapata, 2019; Santos, 2018) is a multiboundary conditions (BC) and multi-model (NWP) kilometric resolution LAM-Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs), which currently runs over the Iberian Peninsula, Canary islands and the Antarctic Peninsula
Summary
Logistic actors play a decisive role in Antarctica. They provide essential services to research community such as flights, vessels, and small boats in order to distribute scientists on the field. Gonzalez et al.: The AEMET-γSREPS over the Antarctic Peninsula reduces the performance of the numerical weather prediction (Bromwich et al, 2020; Jung et al, 2016) To fulfill this requirement, during the Spanish Antarctic campaign 2018–2019, AEMET tested and used operationally the recently developed high-resolution Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) AEMET-γ SREPS (hereafter γ SREPS; Fig. 1). The 2018–2019 Spanish Antarctic campaign took place from 15 December until 31 April coinciding with the Southern Hemisphere Special Observation Period (SH-SOP) of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) (Bromwich et al, 2020) The variable meteorological conditions over Antarctica may have distinct impacts on the different short-range EPS designs that should be investigated
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