The Adoption of Test-Based Grade Retention Policies: An Event History Analysis

Abstract

We use event history analysis on an aggregate dataset from 1997 to 2018 to understand the state-level antecedents associated with the adoption of test-based grade retention policies. Findings indicate that the educational conditions of a state to be more predictive of retention policy adoption than the political, economic, and geographic measures. In particular, a greater share of Black students in a state, lower fourth grade NAEP reading proficiency rates, and larger student enrollments in the early grades were all associated with increased odds of grade retention policy adoption.